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Prediction for CME (2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-09T02:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33873/-1
CME Note: Bright fast halo CME associated with the X1.8 class flare from AR 3848 (N13W08) and a significant eruption marked by an EUV wave, a large area of deep dimming and bright post-eruptive arcades. Associated with this CME there was also a initially slowly developing eruption of a very large filament spanning from N20W15 to N15W55 to the northeast of the Active Region 3848 which started prior to the X flare (~2024-10-08T22:19Z).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-10T14:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.67
Dst min. in nT: -335
Dst min. time: 2024-10-11T01:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-10T10:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41009
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Oct 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Oct 2024 10CM FLUX: 225 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Oct 2024 10CM FLUX: 223 / AP: 070
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Oct 2024 10CM FLUX: 221 / AP: 042

Coronal mass ejections: ...A halo CME was detected in LASCO/C2 data around 02:30 UTC on October 09. It is most likely related to the X1.8 flare peaking at 01:56 UTC on October 09 and a large filament eruption west of SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA AR 3848). Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of 1900 km/s. An associated type IV radio emission was detected, starting at 01:43 UTC on October 09. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth around UTC midday on October 10.

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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
An X1.8 flare was detected, peaking at 01:56 UTC on October 09. It was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA AR 3848). A type II radio emission was detected, starting at 01:44 UTC on October 09.
A halo CME, most likely related to the X1.8 flare was detected in LASCO/C2 data around 02:30 UTC on October 09. Due to the source location an impact on Earth can be expected. Further analysis of the event is ongoing and will be reported in the daily bulletin.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has exceeded the 10 pfu threshold since 05:00 UTC on October 09, marking a minor solar radiation storm. It is most likely linked to the X1.8 flare and the halo CME.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #

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Lead Time: 28.75 hour(s)
Difference: 4.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-10-09T10:01Z

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